Caribbean Tourism in 2026
This report analyzes tourism performance in the Caribbean in the first quarter of 2026. The findings are based on data from Caribbean destinations, international agencies, and industry partners. This review offers insights into visitor arrivals and emerging trends and aims to support strategic planning to enhance the region’s tourism sector.
Global Tourism Performance
The tourism industry, despite ongoing economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and safety and security concerns, continued to expand in the post-pandemic period. According to the latest edition of the World Tourism Barometer provided by the World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism), international tourist arrivals worldwide grew by 1.8% in the first three months of 2026 compared to the same period last year. Overall, destinations welcomed an additional 6.0 million international tourists, bringing the global total to 307.0 million arrivals.
Travel demand varied across the major regions and moderated when the latest conflict in the Middle East erupted in late February. Africa recorded the strongest growth among the major regions, with arrivals increasing by 4.2%, followed closely by Europe with a 4.0% gain. While some destinations in these regions benefited from shifts in travel patterns, others were affected by disruptions to air connectivity and broader uncertainty linked to the conflict.
The effects of airspace restrictions and operational adjustments were more evident in Asia and the Pacific, where tourist arrivals grew by 2.9%, a slower pace than that recorded during much of its post-pandemic recovery period. The Americas, though less affected, recorded a 2.1% increase in international arrivals compared with the first quarter of 2025.
According to data from the Caribbean Tourism Organization, the Caribbean outperformed the global average, with tourist arrivals increasing by 3.9% during the first quarter of 2026. This continued growth underscores the region’s resilience and sustained appeal among international travelers, particularly from its major source markets. (See Table 1.1 and Figure 1.1).
Caribbean Tourism Performance
Tourist (Stop-Over) Arrivals
In 2025, regional tourism survived global economic uncertainty, extra-regional conflicts and tensions, and hurricane-related disruptions. International tourist arrivals in the Caribbean reached an estimated 35 million in 2025, up 9.6% from 34.2 million in 2024.
The region sought to build on that momentum during the first quarter of 2026, amid further global turmoil and uncertainty driven by the significant military escalation against Venezuela on January 4, and an ongoing war since February in Iran that raised fuel prices, increasing costs, including travel and transportation, worldwide
International tourist arrivals to Caribbean destinations rose moderately by an estimated 3.9%, in line with the projected annual growth range of 3% to 4% for 2026. In absolute terms, the number of tourists in the region was estimated to be 10 million, approximately 400,000 more than in comparable periods in both 2024 and 2025. This quarterly performance surpassed all previous first- quarter results, establishing a new record for the region.
The overall expansion this quarter demonstrated the adaptability and resilience of the regional tourism industry in the face of external shocks. Market diversification strategies, sustained marketing, improved connectivity, and product enhancements are contributing to sustained demand for travel to the region.
At the monthly level, arrivals ranged between 3.1 million in February and 3.7 million in March. Each month recorded an increase in arrivals; however, growth rates steadily declined over the period. January saw the strongest expansion (5.9%), highlighting solid early travel demand. February and March posted weaker growth rates of 3.1% and 2.8%, respectively, suggesting that rising external pressures may have begun tempering the pace of regional tourism growth. (See Figures 2.1.1 and 2.1.2).
By the end of the quarter, the Dominican Republic had established its dominance as the region’s leading destination by volume. The destination received 2.6 million tourist visits in the review period, four to five times as many as Puerto Rico, The Bahamas, and Jamaica, the next-highest-receiving destinations, each of which recorded between 500,000 and 600,000 tourist arrivals. Aruba, the US Virgin Islands, and Cuba followed with 400,000, 300,000, and 300,000 tourist arrivals, respectively. Eight destinations recorded arrivals between 100,000 and 200,000, while smaller destinations generally received fewer than 100,000 arrivals during the review period.
Except for a few destinations, the individual destinations saw positive but uneven outcomes during the first quarter. The data from 22 destinations showed that 19 experienced growth, with Anguilla realizing the most robust performance, a 24.6% increase. St. Vincent & the Grenadines, the US Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, Guyana, Grenada, and the Cayman Islands also registered strong performances ranging between 11.0% and 12.2%, while moderate gains were seen in other destinations. Stronger airlift expansion, diversified source markets, and sustained tourism investment contributed to these outcomes.
In contrast, the steepest decline was recorded in Cuba, where arrivals fell by -47.9% as ongoing economic challenges, energy shortages, operational difficulties, and reduced airlift continue to weigh on travel demand.
Jamaica followed with a -27.5% decline, mainly reflecting residual effects of Hurricane Melissa following the storm’s impact in October 2025. Meanwhile, Trinidad & Tobago recorded a modest -0.9% decline.
Caribbean Tourism by Sub-Region
Table 2.1.2 shows that moderate overall growth came from varied performances across sub-regions. The regional expansion was driven primarily by the Dutch Caribbean, the US Territories, the Other Caribbean Countries, and the OECS Countries, but was offset by a decline in the Other Commonwealth Countries.
The largest subregion, Other Caribbean Countries, accounted for an estimated 4.3 million tourist arrivals, an increase of 6.4% over the 4.1 million in the first quarter of 2025. The Commonwealth Caribbean group received approximately 2.6 million arrivals; however, this was a decline of -4.2%. This contraction was driven mainly by the Other Commonwealth Countries grouping, which fell by -6.7%. By contrast, the OECS countries recorded growth of 6.2%, increasing arrivals from 514,600 to 546,800.
The Dutch Caribbean recorded the strongest relative performance among all sub-regions, growing by 12.5% and increasing arrivals from 924,500 to just over 1.04 million visitors. At the same time, the US Territories experienced a 7.7% increase in arrivals, bringing the total to 1.6 million.
In the other regions, the arrivals remained relatively stable, with the French Caribbean recording marginal growth of 0.4%.
The preliminary market estimates indicate that growth in tourist arrivals came from strong demand from Canada and rapid expansion into South American markets, with some support from Europe. The United States has remained the dominant market for Caribbean destinations; however, rising costs and high inflation have begun to erode consumer confidence and affect discretionary spending patterns in the early months.
Tourist Arrivals to the Caribbean by Main Market
United States Travel to the Caribbean Q1 2026
Americans maintained relatively stable levels of departures to destinations outside of the continent for the first three months of 2026, according to the International Trade Association. Low consumer confidence, tariff-driven inflation, and surging energy prices reduced travel demand.
Based on destination arrival data for the same period, visits to the Caribbean by Americans decreased marginally by -0.4%. In total, 4.4 million tourists originated from the United States, 20,000 fewer than in the same three-month period of 2025.
By month, US arrivals peaked at 1.7 million in March after 1.3 million Americans arrived in January and a further 1.4 million in February. However, these volumes, similar to those in 2024, reflected slight decreases in arrivals from this market compared with the corresponding period last year. February saw the most movement: a contraction, as arrivals fell by 1.0%, followed by January (-0.4%) and March, which was flat.
The regional results reflected the contribution of the high-volume destinations for this market. Eleven of the 17 reporting destinations recorded increases during the period. Among these, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Anguilla, Grenada, and Dominica recorded increases exceeding 10%, although arrivals were under 35,000 at each destination. The Dominican Republic recorded the highest number of American visitors during the quarter, welcoming 800,000 arrivals, an increase of 7.8%.
In contrast, six destinations registered declines in American visits; two of the most significant reductions were in The Bahamas (-2.2%) and Jamaica (-32.9%), with the former receiving 0.4 million and the latter 300,000 visitors. Cuba experienced the largest contraction of -56.8% amid ongoing challenges, whereas the other three destinations recorded only marginal declines of less than -1.0%.
Canadian Travel to the Caribbean Q1 2026
The Canadian economy maintained its stability during the first quarter, though a weak dollar continued to weigh on purchasing power abroad. Despite this, Canadian travel intentions and patterns showed that the shift in outbound travel was becoming more entrenched. Canadians continued to reduce cross-border travel to the US, while increasing trips domestically and to other destinations worldwide.
The Caribbean region benefited from this shift, supported by expanded target marketing and increased airlift from Canada. Consequently, arrivals rose from an estimated 1.1 million in the corresponding period of 2025 to an estimated 1.3 million in 2026. This represented an increase of 12.9%.
The monthly growth rate declined over the period: 24.2% in January, 10.9% in February, and 1.3% in March. Similarly, the number of visitors decreased from month to month, moving from 500,000 in January to 400,000 in February and March.
Individual destinations generally had positive outcomes from the Canadian market. Among Caribbean destinations, 15 of the 17 reporting destinations saw more Canadian trips in the first quarter. In fact, 14 destinations noted double-digit gains, ranging 13.3% in the Dominican Republic to 45.2% in the Cayman Islands. Aruba gained an additional 9.4% in tourist arrivals from Canada, while Jamaica (-26.2%) and Cuba (-54.2%), two of the most popular Caribbean destinations for Canadians, recorded declines in visits at the end of the first quarter.
European Travel to the Caribbean Q1 2026
Although geopolitical conditions remained complex during the first quarter of 2026, the evolving economic and political landscape across Europe did not significantly suppress outbound travel demand to the Caribbean. European travel demand remained relatively resilient, supported by stable employment conditions, easing inflationary pressures in several markets, and continued consumer preference for warm destinations.
Regional performance was encouraging during the quarter, with total visitor arrivals from Europe reaching approximately 1.4 million, representing a 4.1% increase over the corresponding period in 2025.
Monthly arrival trends showed persistent expansion throughout the quarter, with European arrivals ranging between 400,000 and 500,000 visitors. Growth remained positive throughout the three months, though at varying rates: 5.4% in January, 2.7% in February, and 4.2% in March.
Among the 17 reporting destinations, 13 countries reported increases, while four reported declines. The Dominican Republic (14.8%) was the only large destination with strong growth, while Anguilla (39.6%), Bermuda (18.5%), the Cayman Islands (17.3%), and Antigua & Barbuda (16.7%) were among small destinations with robust growth. Of the four reporting destinations registering declines from this market, the contraction was largest in Cuba (-49.0%), followed by Saint Lucia (-16.6%) and Jamaica (-9.4%), and St. Vincent & the Grenadines (-2.3%).
Several Caribbean destinations reported increases from all of their monitored European markets, suggesting that demand and expansion were relatively broad-based across Europe. Consequently, individual European markets had between 60% and 82% reporting destinations experiencing increases.
Of the European source markets, the United Kingdom generated an estimated 300,000, while Germany accounted for approximately 69,300 trips. These results meant that arrivals from the UK increased by 5.3%, while arrivals from Germany declined by 9.6%. (See Table A3).
Caribbean and South American Travel to the Caribbean Q1 2026
Airspace in parts of the Americas was temporarily restricted for approximately one day in early January, coinciding with military activity in the region. This disruption, however, has not significantly impacted travel among regional countries.
In fact, trips by Caribbean people to regional destinations continued to grow, albeit marginally. During the first quarter, growth was estimated to be 0.6%. This market performed exceptionally well across 11 of the 15 reporting destinations, with growth rates varying from 1.0% to 33.8%. In contrast, the remaining four reporting destinations saw declines ranging between -2.1% (Jamaica) and -22.9% (Antigua & Barbuda).
In the case of South America, relatively stable economic and political conditions continue to support outbound travel. For the Caribbean, this market is the region’s fastest-growing market, as tourist arrivals rose by 20.7% during the first quarter. This growth was predicted by double-digit gains in nine of the ten destinations. These increases were led by Guyana (55.5%) and included top- receiving destinations: the Dominican Republic (19.1%), Aruba (32.6%), and Curacao (17.2%). (See Table A4).
Caribbean Accommodation Performance
Data compiled by CoStar indicates that the Caribbean hotel sector continued to benefit from the region’s strong tourism performance in 2026. Reflecting the growth in visitor arrivals recorded across most destinations, all three key hotel performance indicators improved during the first quarter. Hotel occupancy increased by 1.7% to 76.5% compared with the same period in 2025, while the average daily rate (ADR) rose by 7.0% to US $447.42.
In the same timeframe, revenue per available room (RevPAR) also increased by 7.0% to US $342.27. Additionally, room revenue was up 8.0%, but the number of available rooms fell marginally by -0.8%.
At the destination level, seven of the 21 destinations for which data were available recorded growth across all five hotel performance indicators, while several others reported improvements in four of the five measures. Only Grenada, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico registered declines in ADR during the quarter. Meanwhile, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Trinidad and Tobago were the only destinations to record lower RevPAR.
The short-term rental market across the region maintained its upward trajectory in 2025. Analysis of Airbnb data for 24 destinations by the CTO showed that active listings increased to approximately 86,600, up 8.9% from 79,500 in 2024, representing an additional 7,100 listings. Guest check-ins also grew 8.3% to 3.8 million, while room nights booked increased 7.3% to 15.2 million. Despite the growth in demand, the average length of stay remained unchanged at 4 days.
Cruise Ship Activity and Performance in the Caribbean
In the first three months, cruise visits to the region increased by an estimated 10.7% compared to the same period of last year. This performance translated to approximately 13.9 million cruise passengers arriving in Caribbean destinations.
By month, the strongest growth in arrivals occurred in March (12.3%), followed by January (9.9%) and February (9.9%). Each month, the number of cruise visitors in the region was at least 4.3 million. January was the peak month (4.9 million), followed by March and February. (see Tables 2.3.1 and 2.3.2 and Figure 2.3.1).
The majority of destinations recorded increases in cruise arrivals. Of the 20 destinations reporting data in 2026, 13 recorded increases, eight of which registered double-digit growth, while seven destinations recorded fewer cruise visitors during the period.
The Bahamas was the most visited destination, recording 3.3 million cruise arrivals — an increase of 20.1%. Other high-volume destinations included Cozumel (1.5 million) and the Dominican Republic (1.1 million). The US Virgin Islands registered the largest increase at 68.0%, reaching 800,000 arrivals for the quarter.
On the other hand, among the seven destinations that declined, cruise visit contractions ranged from -1.1% in Jamaica to -74.8% in Trinidad and Tobago. These differences can be explained by variations in the quantity and size of cruise ship visits to each location.
Aviation Performance in the Caribbean
During the first quarter of 2026, international air travel remained robust, but momentum weakened sharply in March due to the conflict in the Middle East. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global passenger traffic expanded by 4.0% during the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
International air travel remained resilient in the first quarter of 2026, growing by a modest 3.9% compared with the same period in 2025. While traffic through the Middle East contracted by -16.3%, other airlines and destinations benefited from redirected passenger flows, resulting in continued growth elsewhere. Airlines in Africa registered 12.5% growth in RPKs, followed closely by carriers in Latin America and the Caribbean, which rose by 12.3%. International RPKs by Asia and Pacific carriers grew by 8.1% while those in Europe rose by 6.8%. Although slower than in other markets, carriers in North America also reported an increase in RPKs of 4.2%.
International available seat-kilometers (ASKs) grew by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the period in 2025. Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa, led growth, with ASKs growing by 8.8% and 7.4%, respectively. ASKs in Asia and the Pacific increased by 4.7%, while Europe and North America saw increases of 4.5% and 1.9%, respectively. The Middle East recorded ASKs -15.4% below levels experienced during the same months of the previous year.
Passenger load factors (PLFs) varied across regions. On average, the passenger load factor was 1.8% higher during the review period than in 2025. Africa recorded the highest PLF growth at 3.5%, while Asia Pacific and Latin America & the Caribbean recorded PLF growth of 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, PLFs increased by 1.8% in North America and by 1.7% in Europe. The Middle East reported -0.9% decline in PLFs.
Caribbean Tourism Outlook 2026
Caribbean tourism has performed encouragingly this quarter. While tourist arrivals grew within the expected 3% to 4% range for 2026, the cruise segment outperformed expectations, exceeding its anticipated 5% to 7% expansion. Together, these trends highlight the region’s resilience within an increasingly fragile and uneven global market.
The Caribbean continues to benefit from its strong brand appeal, proximity to major source markets in North and South America, and its diverse tourism product. Additionally, when instability elsewhere is present, the Caribbean benefits from the redirection of travel away from those troubled areas.
However, the outlook for the remainder of 2026 is becoming more uncertain due to escalating economic volatility and geopolitical tensions, tied to the war involving Iran and its impact on global energy and aviation markets. Rising oil and jet fuel prices have significantly increased airline operating costs, forcing carriers to raise airfares, reintroduce fuel surcharges, increase baggage and ancillary fees, and reduce flight frequencies and route networks. These pressures are likely to affect travel demand, especially among price-sensitive travelers, while increasing the overall cost of Caribbean vacations.
The aviation sector presents one of the largest downside risks for Caribbean tourism. Prolonged high fuel prices are placing financial strain on airlines, increasing the likelihood of route consolidation, service reductions, and potential airline failures. For the Caribbean, which remains heavily dependent on airlift, this could result in reduced connectivity, fewer direct flights, and more uneven tourism performance across destinations.
Despite these risks, the Caribbean could still benefit from shifts in global travel patterns if travelers continue redirecting vacations away from politically unstable or long-haul destinations toward shorter-haul regional travel. Overall, tourism growth in 2026 is expected to continue at a more moderate pace, but the sector’s performance will depend heavily on fuel prices, airline stability, and broader global economic conditions over the remainder of the year.
